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Friesdorf vs Hürth — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Friesdorf
Friesdorf
CANC
14:30
Hürth
Hürth
3/14/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 18Sportzentrum Friesdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Friesdorf42%
×Draw21%
Hürth37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friesdorf
1.97
Hürth
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 66 away

creates per match

Friesdorf
1.91
Hürth
1.41

allows per match

Friesdorf
2.25
Hürth
2.03

finishing

Friesdorf+0.00on par
Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friesdorf ↓

Hürth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Friesdorf or draw
63%
Friesdorf or Hürth
79%
Draw or Hürth
58%

Winning margin

Friesdorf wins by 2+
23%
Hürth wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Friesdorf 1+ goals
86%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
58%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
31%
Hürth 1+ goals
84%
Hürth 2+ goals
54%
Hürth 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Friesdorf (draw refunded)
53%
Hürth (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friesdorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friesdorf attack 1.91 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.97

Hürth attack 1.41 + Friesdorf defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Friesdorf scores more
42%
level
21%
Hürth scores more
37%

Friesdorf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Friesdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Friesdorf host Hürth

March 14, 2021: Friesdorf take on Hürth in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Friesdorf host Hürth at Sportzentrum Friesdorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.