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Hürth vs Eilendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hürth
Hürth
CANC
17:30
Eilendorf
Eilendorf
4/1/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 21Salus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hürth52%
×Draw23%
Eilendorf25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hürth
1.79
Eilendorf
1.18

Hürth creates 52% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 20 away

creates per match

Hürth
1.37
Eilendorf
0.90

allows per match

Hürth
1.46
Eilendorf
2.20

finishing

Hürth+0.00on par
Eilendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hürth ↓

Eilendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hürth or draw
75%
Hürth or Eilendorf
77%
Draw or Eilendorf
48%

Winning margin

Hürth wins by 2+
29%
Eilendorf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hürth 1+ goals
83%
Hürth 2+ goals
53%
Hürth 3+ goals
26%
Eilendorf 1+ goals
69%
Eilendorf 2+ goals
33%
Eilendorf 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hürth (draw refunded)
67%
Eilendorf (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hürth at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Eilendorf away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hürth attack 1.37 + Eilendorf defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Eilendorf attack 0.90 + Hürth defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hürth scores more
52%
level
23%
Eilendorf scores more
25%

Hürth at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hürth host Eilendorf

April 1, 2021: Hürth take on Eilendorf in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hürth host Eilendorf at Salus Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.