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Huragan Morąg vs Znicz Biała Piska — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Huragan Morąg
Huragan Morąg
FT
1 – 1
Znicz Biała Piska
Znicz Biała Piska
11/15/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion Huragan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Huragan Morąg38%
×Draw22%
Znicz Biała Piska40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huragan Morąg
1.80
Znicz Biała Piska
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 53 away

creates per match

Huragan Morąg
1.06
Znicz Biała Piska
1.47

allows per match

Huragan Morąg
2.25
Znicz Biała Piska
2.55

finishing

Huragan Morąg+0.00on par
Znicz Biała Piska+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huragan Morąg ↓

Znicz Biała Piska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Huragan Morąg or draw
60%
Huragan Morąg or Znicz Biała Piska
78%
Draw or Znicz Biała Piska
62%

Winning margin

Huragan Morąg wins by 2+
20%
Znicz Biała Piska wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Huragan Morąg 1+ goals
83%
Huragan Morąg 2+ goals
54%
Huragan Morąg 3+ goals
27%
Znicz Biała Piska 1+ goals
84%
Znicz Biała Piska 2+ goals
55%
Znicz Biała Piska 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)
48%
Znicz Biała Piska (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huragan Morąg at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

Znicz Biała Piska away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huragan Morąg attack 1.06 + Znicz Biała Piska defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.80

Znicz Biała Piska attack 1.47 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huragan Morąg scores more
38%
level
22%
Znicz Biała Piska scores more
40%

Znicz Biała Piska at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Znicz Biała Piska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huragan Morąg vs Znicz Biała Piska

Huragan Morąg and Znicz Biała Piska drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Huragan in Morąg.