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Huragan Morąg vs Wikielec — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Huragan Morąg
Huragan Morąg
FT
1 – 3
Wikielec
Wikielec
5/15/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Stadion Huragan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Huragan Morąg31%
×Draw24%
Wikielec45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huragan Morąg
1.39
Wikielec
1.71

Wikielec creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 86 away

creates per match

Huragan Morąg
1.06
Wikielec
1.17

allows per match

Huragan Morąg
2.25
Wikielec
1.72

finishing

Huragan Morąg+0.00on par
Wikielec+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huragan Morąg ↓

Wikielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Huragan Morąg or draw
55%
Huragan Morąg or Wikielec
76%
Draw or Wikielec
69%

Winning margin

Huragan Morąg wins by 2+
14%
Wikielec wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Huragan Morąg 1+ goals
75%
Huragan Morąg 2+ goals
40%
Huragan Morąg 3+ goals
16%
Wikielec 1+ goals
82%
Wikielec 2+ goals
51%
Wikielec 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)
41%
Wikielec (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huragan Morąg at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

Wikielec away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huragan Morąg attack 1.06 + Wikielec defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.39

Wikielec attack 1.17 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Huragan Morąg scores more
31%
level
24%
Wikielec scores more
45%

Wikielec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wikielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Huragan Morąg 1–3 Wikielec

Wikielec beat Huragan Morąg 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Huragan in Morąg.