Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Huragan Morąg vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Huragan Morąg
Huragan Morąg
FT
1 – 2
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
9/26/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Huragan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Huragan Morąg20%
×Draw20%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huragan Morąg
1.18
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.20

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 86% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 51 away

creates per match

Huragan Morąg
1.06
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.14

allows per match

Huragan Morąg
2.25
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.29

finishing

Huragan Morąg+0.00on par
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huragan Morąg ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Huragan Morąg or draw
40%
Huragan Morąg or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
80%
Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
80%

Winning margin

Huragan Morąg wins by 2+
8%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Huragan Morąg 1+ goals
69%
Huragan Morąg 2+ goals
33%
Huragan Morąg 3+ goals
12%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
89%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
64%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)
25%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huragan Morąg at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huragan Morąg attack 1.06 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.14 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Huragan Morąg scores more
20%
level
20%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
60%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huragan Morąg vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki beat Huragan Morąg 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Huragan in Morąg.