Huragan Morąg 2–4 Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Huragan Morąg

FT

2 – 4

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

8/29/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stadion Huragan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Huragan Morąg30%

×Draw22%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huragan MorągExpected goals in this matchLechia T. Mazowiecki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.94

Huragan Morąg

1.48

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.94

Lechia T. Mazowiecki creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 102 away

1.06

creates per match

1.63

2.25

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Huragan Morąg

1.06

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.63

allows per match

Huragan Morąg

2.25

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huragan Morąg+0.00on par

Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huragan Morąg ↓

Lechia T. Mazowiecki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Huragan Morąg or draw

52%

Huragan Morąg or Lechia T. Mazowiecki

78%

Draw or Lechia T. Mazowiecki

70%

Winning margin

Huragan Morąg wins by 2+

13%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Huragan Morąg 1+ goals

77%

Huragan Morąg 2+ goals

43%

Huragan Morąg 3+ goals

19%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

86%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

58%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)

38%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huragan Morąg at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.91 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huragan Morąg attack 1.06 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.63 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huragan Morąg scores more

30%

level

22%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more

48%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lechia T. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff