Huracan 2–0 Union Sunchales: Result & Stats

Huracan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Sunchales

5/15/2019

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Brigadier General Estanislao López (Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Huracan46%

×Draw24%

Union Sunchales30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchUnion Sunchales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.25

Huracan

1.62

Union Sunchales

1.25

Huracan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.44

creates per match

1.40

1.11

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Huracan

1.44

Union Sunchales

1.40

allows per match

Huracan

1.11

Union Sunchales

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huracan+0.00on par

Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Union Sunchales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

70%

Huracan or Union Sunchales

76%

Draw or Union Sunchales

54%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

24%

Union Sunchales wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

80%

Huracan 2+ goals

48%

Huracan 3+ goals

22%

Union Sunchales 1+ goals

71%

Union Sunchales 2+ goals

36%

Union Sunchales 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

61%

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.44 + Union Sunchales defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.62

Union Sunchales attack 1.40 + Huracan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Huracan scores more

46%

level

24%

Union Sunchales scores more

30%

Huracan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff