Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Huracan vs Independ. Rivadavia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Huracan
Huracan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia
3/16/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 10Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Huracan37%
×Draw31%
Independ. Rivadavia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracan
1.06
Independ. Rivadavia
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 38 away

creates per match

Huracan
1.10
Independ. Rivadavia
1.05

allows per match

Huracan
0.89
Independ. Rivadavia
1.03

finishing

Huracan+0.00on par
Independ. Rivadavia+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Huracan or draw
68%
Huracan or Independ. Rivadavia
69%
Draw or Independ. Rivadavia
63%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+
15%
Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals
65%
Huracan 2+ goals
29%
Huracan 3+ goals
9%
Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals
62%
Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals
25%
Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)
53%
Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.89 · 122 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.10 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.05 + Huracan defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huracan scores more
37%
level
31%
Independ. Rivadavia scores more
32%

Huracan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Profesional Argentina: Huracan 2–0 Independ. Rivadavia

Huracan beat Independ. Rivadavia 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó in Buenos Aires.