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Huracan vs America de Cali — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Huracan
Huracan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
America de Cali
America de Cali
4/23/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Huracan53%
×Draw25%
America de Cali22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracan
1.62
America de Cali
0.96

Huracan creates 69% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Huracan
1.88
America de Cali
0.91

allows per match

Huracan
1.00
America de Cali
1.36

finishing

Huracan+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Huracan or draw
78%
Huracan or America de Cali
75%
Draw or America de Cali
47%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+
28%
America de Cali wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals
80%
Huracan 2+ goals
48%
Huracan 3+ goals
22%
America de Cali 1+ goals
62%
America de Cali 2+ goals
25%
America de Cali 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)
70%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.88 + America de Cali defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.62

America de Cali attack 0.91 + Huracan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Huracan scores more
53%
level
25%
America de Cali scores more
22%

Huracan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Huracan 0–0 America de Cali

Huracan and America de Cali drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó in Buenos Aires.