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Huracán Res. vs Tigre Res. — Reserve League 2022

Huracán Res.
Huracán Res.
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tigre Res.
Tigre Res.
9/9/2022Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Huracán Res.47%
×Draw27%
Tigre Res.26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Res.
1.42
Tigre Res.
0.99

Huracán Res. creates 43% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 61 away

creates per match

Huracán Res.
1.59
Tigre Res.
0.89

allows per match

Huracán Res.
1.08
Tigre Res.
1.25

finishing

Huracán Res.+0.00on par
Tigre Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Res. ↓

Tigre Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huracán Res. or draw
74%
Huracán Res. or Tigre Res.
73%
Draw or Tigre Res.
53%

Winning margin

Huracán Res. wins by 2+
23%
Tigre Res. wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Huracán Res. 1+ goals
76%
Huracán Res. 2+ goals
41%
Huracán Res. 3+ goals
17%
Tigre Res. 1+ goals
63%
Tigre Res. 2+ goals
26%
Tigre Res. 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Huracán Res. (draw refunded)
64%
Tigre Res. (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Res. at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Tigre Res. away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Res. attack 1.59 + Tigre Res. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tigre Res. attack 0.89 + Huracán Res. defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huracán Res. scores more
47%
level
27%
Tigre Res. scores more
26%

Huracán Res. at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Huracán Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huracán Res. vs Tigre Res.

Tigre Res. beat Huracán Res. 2-1 in Reserve League on September 9, 2022.