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Huracán Res. vs Sarmiento Res. — Reserve League 2022

Huracán Res.
Huracán Res.
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sarmiento Res.
Sarmiento Res.
2/28/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Huracán Res.51%
×Draw26%
Sarmiento Res.23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Res.
1.50
Sarmiento Res.
0.91

Huracán Res. creates 65% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 59 away

creates per match

Huracán Res.
1.59
Sarmiento Res.
0.73

allows per match

Huracán Res.
1.08
Sarmiento Res.
1.42

finishing

Huracán Res.+0.00on par
Sarmiento Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Res. ↓

Sarmiento Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huracán Res. or draw
77%
Huracán Res. or Sarmiento Res.
74%
Draw or Sarmiento Res.
49%

Winning margin

Huracán Res. wins by 2+
26%
Sarmiento Res. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Huracán Res. 1+ goals
78%
Huracán Res. 2+ goals
44%
Huracán Res. 3+ goals
19%
Sarmiento Res. 1+ goals
60%
Sarmiento Res. 2+ goals
23%
Sarmiento Res. 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Huracán Res. (draw refunded)
69%
Sarmiento Res. (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Res. at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Sarmiento Res. away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Res. attack 1.59 + Sarmiento Res. defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sarmiento Res. attack 0.73 + Huracán Res. defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Huracán Res. scores more
51%
level
26%
Sarmiento Res. scores more
23%

Huracán Res. at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Huracán Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huracán Res. 1 – 1 Sarmiento Res.

Huracán Res. and Sarmiento Res. drew 1-1 in Reserve League on February 28, 2024.