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Huracán Melilla vs Torre del Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huracán Melilla
Huracán Melilla
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
12/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Huracán Melilla11%
×Draw18%
Torre del Mar71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Melilla
0.74
Torre del Mar
2.22

Torre del Mar creates 200% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

creates per match

Huracán Melilla
0.33
Torre del Mar
1.17

allows per match

Huracán Melilla
3.27
Torre del Mar
1.16

finishing

Huracán Melilla+0.00on par
Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Melilla ↓

Torre del Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–213%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Huracán Melilla or draw
29%
Huracán Melilla or Torre del Mar
82%
Draw or Torre del Mar
89%

Winning margin

Huracán Melilla wins by 2+
3%
Torre del Mar wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Huracán Melilla 1+ goals
52%
Huracán Melilla 2+ goals
17%
Huracán Melilla 3+ goals
4%
Torre del Mar 1+ goals
89%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
65%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)
13%
Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Melilla at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

Torre del Mar away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Melilla attack 0.33 + Torre del Mar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.74

Torre del Mar attack 1.17 + Huracán Melilla defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Huracán Melilla scores more
11%
level
18%
Torre del Mar scores more
71%

Torre del Mar at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huracán Melilla 0 – 5 Torre del Mar

Torre del Mar beat Huracán Melilla 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.