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Huracán Melilla vs Huétor Vega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huracán Melilla
Huracán Melilla
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
10/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 4Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Huracán Melilla14%
×Draw19%
Huétor Vega67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Melilla
0.85
Huétor Vega
2.16

Huétor Vega creates 154% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 109 away

creates per match

Huracán Melilla
0.33
Huétor Vega
1.04

allows per match

Huracán Melilla
3.27
Huétor Vega
1.38

finishing

Huracán Melilla+0.00on par
Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Melilla ↓

Huétor Vega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Huracán Melilla or draw
33%
Huracán Melilla or Huétor Vega
81%
Draw or Huétor Vega
86%

Winning margin

Huracán Melilla wins by 2+
4%
Huétor Vega wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Huracán Melilla 1+ goals
57%
Huracán Melilla 2+ goals
21%
Huracán Melilla 3+ goals
5%
Huétor Vega 1+ goals
88%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
63%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)
17%
Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Melilla at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Melilla attack 0.33 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.85

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Huracán Melilla defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Huracán Melilla scores more
14%
level
19%
Huétor Vega scores more
67%

Huétor Vega at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huracán Melilla 0 – 3 Huétor Vega

Huétor Vega beat Huracán Melilla 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.