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Huracán Balazote vs Atlético Tomelloso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Tomelloso
Atlético Tomelloso
12/3/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 13Estadio Municipal de Balazote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Huracán Balazote56%
×Draw24%
Atlético Tomelloso20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Balazote
1.67
Atlético Tomelloso
0.88

Huracán Balazote creates 90% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 32 away

creates per match

Huracán Balazote
1.40
Atlético Tomelloso
0.56

allows per match

Huracán Balazote
1.20
Atlético Tomelloso
1.94

finishing

Huracán Balazote+0.00on par
Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Balazote ↓

Atlético Tomelloso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Huracán Balazote or draw
80%
Huracán Balazote or Atlético Tomelloso
76%
Draw or Atlético Tomelloso
44%

Winning margin

Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
31%
Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
81%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
50%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
74%
Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Balazote at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Atlético Tomelloso away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Balazote attack 1.40 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.56 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Huracán Balazote scores more
56%
level
24%
Atlético Tomelloso scores more
20%

Huracán Balazote at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Huracán Balazote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Huracán Balazote 3–3 Atlético Tomelloso

Huracán Balazote and Atlético Tomelloso drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Balazote in Balazote.