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Huracán Balazote vs Atlético Ibañés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
2/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 18Estadio Municipal de Balazote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Huracán Balazote40%
×Draw27%
Atlético Ibañés33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Balazote
1.28
Atlético Ibañés
1.14

Huracán Balazote creates 12% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 30 away

creates per match

Huracán Balazote
1.40
Atlético Ibañés
1.07

allows per match

Huracán Balazote
1.20
Atlético Ibañés
1.17

finishing

Huracán Balazote+0.00on par
Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Balazote ↓

Atlético Ibañés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huracán Balazote or draw
67%
Huracán Balazote or Atlético Ibañés
73%
Draw or Atlético Ibañés
60%

Winning margin

Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
18%
Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
72%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
37%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
55%
Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Balazote at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Atlético Ibañés away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Balazote attack 1.40 + Atlético Ibañés defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.07 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huracán Balazote scores more
40%
level
27%
Atlético Ibañés scores more
33%

Huracán Balazote at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Huracán Balazote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Huracán Balazote 0–0 Atlético Ibañés

Huracán Balazote and Atlético Ibañés drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Balazote in Balazote.