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Huracán Balazote vs Almagro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Almagro
Almagro
11/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 6Estadio Municipal de Balazote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Huracán Balazote55%
×Draw24%
Almagro21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Balazote
1.70
Almagro
0.93

Huracán Balazote creates 83% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 29 away

creates per match

Huracán Balazote
1.40
Almagro
0.66

allows per match

Huracán Balazote
1.20
Almagro
2.00

finishing

Huracán Balazote+0.00on par
Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Balazote ↓

Almagro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Huracán Balazote or draw
79%
Huracán Balazote or Almagro
76%
Draw or Almagro
45%

Winning margin

Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
31%
Almagro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
82%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
51%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
24%
Almagro 1+ goals
61%
Almagro 2+ goals
24%
Almagro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
73%
Almagro (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Balazote at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Balazote attack 1.40 + Almagro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Almagro attack 0.66 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Huracán Balazote scores more
55%
level
24%
Almagro scores more
21%

Huracán Balazote at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Huracán Balazote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Huracán Balazote 2–0 Almagro

Huracán Balazote beat Almagro 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Balazote in Balazote.