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Huntsville City vs Philadelphia Union II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Huntsville City
Huntsville City
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
3/29/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 4Joe W. Davis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Huntsville City42%
×Draw22%
Philadelphia Union II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huntsville City
1.94
Philadelphia Union II
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 56 away

creates per match

Huntsville City
2.28
Philadelphia Union II
1.95

allows per match

Huntsville City
1.69
Philadelphia Union II
1.61

finishing

Huntsville City+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huntsville City ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Huntsville City or draw
63%
Huntsville City or Philadelphia Union II
78%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
58%

Winning margin

Huntsville City wins by 2+
23%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Huntsville City 1+ goals
86%
Huntsville City 2+ goals
58%
Huntsville City 3+ goals
30%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
84%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
54%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Huntsville City (draw refunded)
53%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huntsville City at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.69 · 36 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huntsville City attack 2.28 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.94

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.95 + Huntsville City defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Huntsville City scores more
42%
level
22%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
37%

Huntsville City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Huntsville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Huntsville City 2–2 Philadelphia Union II

Huntsville City and Philadelphia Union II drew 2-2 in MLS Next Pro on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Joe W. Davis Stadium.