Huntsville City 2–2 Chattanooga: Result & Stats

Huntsville City

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Chattanooga

3/22/2026

MLS Next Pro · Group StageJoe W. Davis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Huntsville City47%

×Draw21%

Chattanooga32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huntsville CityExpected goals in this matchChattanooga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.65

Huntsville City

2.02

Chattanooga

1.65

Huntsville City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 25 away

2.28

creates per match

1.60

1.69

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Huntsville City

2.28

Chattanooga

1.60

allows per match

Huntsville City

1.69

Chattanooga

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huntsville City+0.00on par

Chattanooga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huntsville City ↓

Chattanooga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Huntsville City or draw

68%

Huntsville City or Chattanooga

79%

Draw or Chattanooga

53%

Winning margin

Huntsville City wins by 2+

26%

Chattanooga wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Huntsville City 1+ goals

87%

Huntsville City 2+ goals

60%

Huntsville City 3+ goals

33%

Chattanooga 1+ goals

81%

Chattanooga 2+ goals

49%

Chattanooga 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Huntsville City (draw refunded)

59%

Chattanooga (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huntsville City at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.69 · 36 matches

Chattanooga away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huntsville City attack 2.28 + Chattanooga defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.02

Chattanooga attack 1.60 + Huntsville City defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huntsville City scores more

47%

level

21%

Chattanooga scores more

32%

Huntsville City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Huntsville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Huntsville City 2–2 Chattanooga

Huntsville City and Chattanooga drew 2-2 in MLS Next Pro on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Joe W. Davis Stadium.

Huntsville City vs Chattanooga — MLS Next Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

MLS Next Pro: Huntsville City 2–2 Chattanooga