Huntly 2–2 Wick Academy: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Huntly

AET

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wick Academy

Grant 45', 9'

Unknown 76'

MacGregor 14'

9/28/2024

FA Cup · 1st RoundChristie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Huntly73%

×Draw15%

Wick Academy11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuntlyExpected goals in this matchWick Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.00

Huntly

2.75

Wick Academy

1.00

Huntly creates 175% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Huntly

2.50

Wick Academy

1.00

allows per match

Huntly

1.00

Wick Academy

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huntly+0.00on par

Wick Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huntly ↓

Wick Academy →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Huntly or draw

89%

Huntly or Wick Academy

85%

Draw or Wick Academy

27%

Winning margin

Huntly wins by 2+

52%

Wick Academy wins by 2+

Team goals

Huntly 1+ goals

93%

Huntly 2+ goals

75%

Huntly 3+ goals

51%

Wick Academy 1+ goals

63%

Wick Academy 2+ goals

26%

Wick Academy 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Huntly (draw refunded)

87%

Wick Academy (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huntly at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Wick Academy away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huntly attack 2.50 + Wick Academy defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Wick Academy attack 1.00 + Huntly defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Huntly scores more

73%

level

15%

Wick Academy scores more

11%

Huntly at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Huntly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Grant

14'

MacGregor

45'

Grant

76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff