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Huntly vs Cumbernauld Colts — FA Cup 2019

Huntly
Huntly
FT
3 – 1
Cumbernauld Colts
Cumbernauld Colts
G. Elphinstone 89'
R. McKeown 54'
G. Murison 30'
F. Team 3'
1/6/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundBalmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Huntly68%
×Draw16%
Cumbernauld Colts15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huntly
2.75
Cumbernauld Colts
1.25

Huntly creates 120% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Huntly
2.50
Cumbernauld Colts
1.50

allows per match

Huntly
1.00
Cumbernauld Colts
3.00

finishing

Huntly+0.00on par
Cumbernauld Colts+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huntly ↓

Cumbernauld Colts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Huntly or draw
85%
Huntly or Cumbernauld Colts
84%
Draw or Cumbernauld Colts
32%

Winning margin

Huntly wins by 2+
47%
Cumbernauld Colts wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Huntly 1+ goals
93%
Huntly 2+ goals
75%
Huntly 3+ goals
51%
Cumbernauld Colts 1+ goals
71%
Cumbernauld Colts 2+ goals
36%
Cumbernauld Colts 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Huntly (draw refunded)
82%
Cumbernauld Colts (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huntly at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Cumbernauld Colts away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huntly attack 2.50 + Cumbernauld Colts defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Cumbernauld Colts attack 1.50 + Huntly defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Huntly scores more
68%
level
16%
Cumbernauld Colts scores more
15%

Huntly at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Huntly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
F. Team
30'
G. Murison
54'
R. McKeown
89'
G. Elphinstone

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huntly vs Cumbernauld Colts

Huntly beat Cumbernauld Colts 3-1 in FA Cup on January 6, 2021.

Goals: F. Team (3'), G. Murison (30'), R. McKeown (54'), G. Elphinstone (89').

The match was played at Balmoral Stadium in Aberdeen.