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Huntly vs Buckie Thistle — FA Cup 2019

Huntly
Huntly
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Buckie Thistle
Buckie Thistle
9/27/2025FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundChristie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Huntly52%
×Draw22%
Buckie Thistle26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huntly
1.96
Buckie Thistle
1.32

Huntly creates 48% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Huntly
2.50
Buckie Thistle
1.64

allows per match

Huntly
1.00
Buckie Thistle
1.43

finishing

Huntly+0.00on par
Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huntly ↓

Buckie Thistle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Huntly or draw
74%
Huntly or Buckie Thistle
78%
Draw or Buckie Thistle
48%

Winning margin

Huntly wins by 2+
30%
Buckie Thistle wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huntly 1+ goals
86%
Huntly 2+ goals
58%
Huntly 3+ goals
31%
Buckie Thistle 1+ goals
73%
Buckie Thistle 2+ goals
38%
Buckie Thistle 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Huntly (draw refunded)
67%
Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huntly at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huntly attack 2.50 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.96

Buckie Thistle attack 1.64 + Huntly defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Huntly scores more
52%
level
22%
Buckie Thistle scores more
26%

Huntly at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Huntly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Huntly
Buckie
Colin Charlesworth
Manager: Colin Charlesworth
Lewis MacKinnon
Manager: Lewis MacKinnon

Match Recap: Huntly vs Buckie Thistle

Buckie Thistle beat Huntly 3-1 in FA Cup on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Christie Park in Huntly.