Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hungary vs Türkiye — UEFA Nations League 2018

Hungary
Hungary
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Türkiye
Türkiye
11/18/2020UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 6Ferenc Puskas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hungary32%
×Draw27%
Türkiye42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hungary
1.16
Türkiye
1.38

Türkiye creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Hungary
1.15
Türkiye
1.75

allows per match

Hungary
1.00
Türkiye
1.17

finishing

Hungary+0.00on par
Türkiye+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary ↓

Türkiye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hungary or draw
58%
Hungary or Türkiye
73%
Draw or Türkiye
68%

Winning margin

Hungary wins by 2+
13%
Türkiye wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hungary 1+ goals
69%
Hungary 2+ goals
32%
Hungary 3+ goals
11%
Türkiye 1+ goals
75%
Türkiye 2+ goals
40%
Türkiye 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hungary (draw refunded)
43%
Türkiye (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Türkiye away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary attack 1.15 + Türkiye defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Türkiye attack 1.75 + Hungary defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hungary scores more
32%
level
27%
Türkiye scores more
42%

Türkiye at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Nations League: Hungary 2–0 Türkiye

Hungary beat Türkiye 2-0 in UEFA Nations League on November 18, 2020.

The match was played at Ferenc Puskas in Budapest.