Hungary 1–3 Switzerland: Result & Stats

Hungary

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Switzerland

B. Varga 66'

B. Embolo 90+3'

M. Aebischer 45'

K. Duah 12'

6/15/2024

Euro Championship · Group A - 1RheinEnergieSTADION

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hungary33%

×Draw28%

Switzerland39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HungaryExpected goals in this matchSwitzerland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.26

Hungary

1.13

Switzerland

1.26

Switzerland creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.13

creates per match

1.14

1.38

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Hungary

1.13

Switzerland

1.14

allows per match

Hungary

1.38

Switzerland

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hungary+0.00on par

Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary ↓

Switzerland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hungary or draw

61%

Hungary or Switzerland

72%

Draw or Switzerland

67%

Winning margin

Hungary wins by 2+

13%

Switzerland wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hungary 1+ goals

68%

Hungary 2+ goals

31%

Hungary 3+ goals

11%

Switzerland 1+ goals

72%

Switzerland 2+ goals

36%

Switzerland 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hungary (draw refunded)

46%

Switzerland (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Switzerland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary attack 1.13 + Switzerland defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Switzerland attack 1.14 + Hungary defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hungary scores more

33%

level

28%

Switzerland scores more

39%

Switzerland at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Aebischer

Switzerland · M

8.3

Match Events

5'

Silvan Widmer

12'

K. Duah↳ M. Aebischer

13'

Kwadwo DuahGoal confirmed

45'

M. Aebischer↳ R. Freuler

46'

B. Bolla← Á. Lang

59'

Remo Freuler

66'

B. Varga↳ D. Szoboszlai

67'

L. Kleinheisler← Á. Nagy

68'

Z. Amdouni← K. Duah

68'

L. Stergiou← S. Widmer

69'

74'

79'

79'

86'

V. Sierro← R. Freuler

86'

F. Rieder← D. Ndoye

87'

Bendegúz Bolla

90+3'

B. Embolo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HungarySwitzerland

Overview

50%Possession50%

6Total Shots15

1.25Expected Goals (xG)2.33

2Corners6

9Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots15

2On Target7

3Off Target3

1Blocked5

5Inside Box11

1Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

438Total Passes452

365Accurate Passes380

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-0.02Goals Prevented-0.02

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Euro Championship: Hungary 1–3 Switzerland

Switzerland beat Hungary 3-1 in Euro Championship on June 15, 2024.

Goals: K. Duah (12'), M. Aebischer (45'), B. Varga (66'), B. Embolo (90+3').

Hungary controlled possession (50%) and registered 6 shots to 15.

The match was played at RheinEnergieSTADION in Köln.

Hungary vs Switzerland — Euro Championship 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Euro Championship: Hungary 1–3 Switzerland