Hungary 2–1 Croatia: Result & Stats

Hungary

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Croatia

M. Pátkai 76'

Á. Szalai 34'

A. Rebić 13'

3/24/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 2Groupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hungary40%

×Draw28%

Croatia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HungaryExpected goals in this matchCroatia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.12

Hungary

1.28

Croatia

1.12

Hungary creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.13

creates per match

0.86

1.38

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Hungary

1.13

Croatia

0.86

allows per match

Hungary

1.38

Croatia

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hungary+0.00on par

Croatia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary ↓

Croatia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hungary or draw

68%

Hungary or Croatia

72%

Draw or Croatia

60%

Winning margin

Hungary wins by 2+

18%

Croatia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hungary 1+ goals

72%

Hungary 2+ goals

37%

Hungary 3+ goals

14%

Croatia 1+ goals

67%

Croatia 2+ goals

31%

Croatia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hungary (draw refunded)

55%

Croatia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Croatia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary attack 1.13 + Croatia defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Croatia attack 0.86 + Hungary defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hungary scores more

40%

level

28%

Croatia scores more

32%

Hungary at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hungary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

B. Dzsudzsák

Hungary · M

7.7

Match Events

13'

A. Rebić↳ A. Kramarić

30'

M. Leovac← B. Barišić

34'

Á. Szalai↳ B. Dzsudzsák

40'

R. Varga← D. Nagy

63'

Balázs Dzsudzsák

65'

Z. Kalmár← D. Szoboszlai

67'

J. Brekalo← A. Rebić

76'

M. Pátkai

77'

B. Petković← T. Jedvaj

82'

Dejan Lovren

85'

B. Bese← B. Dzsudzsák

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HungaryCroatia

Overview

35%Possession65%

12Total Shots11

3Corners6

9Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots11

8On Target2

2Off Target8

2Blocked1

9Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

292Total Passes524

226Accurate Passes443

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1