Hungary U19 3–0 Scotland U19: Result & Stats

Hungary U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Scotland U19

G. Horváth 74'

D. Németh 36', 31' (pen)

3/26/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hungary U1960%

×Draw21%

Scotland U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hungary U19Expected goals in this matchScotland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.04

Hungary U19

2.04

Scotland U19

1.04

Hungary U19 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

2.19

creates per match

0.90

1.19

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Hungary U19

2.19

Scotland U19

0.90

allows per match

Hungary U19

1.19

Scotland U19

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hungary U19+0.00on par

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary U19 ↓

Scotland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hungary U19 or draw

81%

Hungary U19 or Scotland U19

79%

Draw or Scotland U19

40%

Winning margin

Hungary U19 wins by 2+

37%

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hungary U19 1+ goals

87%

Hungary U19 2+ goals

60%

Hungary U19 3+ goals

33%

Scotland U19 1+ goals

65%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

28%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hungary U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Scotland U19 away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary U19 attack 2.19 + Scotland U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.04

Scotland U19 attack 0.90 + Hungary U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hungary U19 scores more

60%

level

21%

Scotland U19 scores more

19%

Hungary U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hungary U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Alaxal

30'

K. Smith

31'

D. NémethPenalty

36'

D. Németh

46'

A. Mebude← K. Smith

57'

A. Bényei← M. Simuț

57'

Z. Kerezsi← D. Németh

59'

A. Szujo

67'

L. Butterfield← M. Carse

67'

Matthew Craig← Michael Craig

68'

G. Horváth← M. Kovács

74'

G. Horváth

81'

K. Török← A. Szujó

81'

Z. Gera← Z. Vancsa

82'

C. McKinnon← A. Lowry

82'

R. Apter← L. Smith

88'

J. Chilokoa-Mullen

Hungary

Scotland

1

2

5

13

6

4

▼

Smith

7

▼

Craig

17

▼

Smith

11

▼

Lowry

10

▼

9

1

21

15

5

14

7

▼

Kovács

4

▼

Szujó

2

Debreceni

16

▼

Simuț

9

⚽2

▼

Németh

10

▼

Vancsa

Manager: K. Timar

57'▲A. Bényei←▼M. Simuț

57'▲Z. Kerezsi←▼D. Németh

68'▲G. Horváth←▼M. Kovács

81'▲K. Török←▼A. Szujó

81'▲Z. Gera←▼Z. Vancsa

Hungary U19 substitutes

20Bényei11Kerezsi23Horváth3Török18Gera6Sztojka12Molnár

Manager: B. Stark

46'▲A. Mebude←▼K. Smith

67'▲L. Butterfield←▼M. Carse

67'▲Matthew Craig←▼Michael Craig

82'▲C. McKinnon←▼A. Lowry

82'▲R. Apter←▼L. Smith

Scotland U19 substitutes

19Mebude15Butterfield8Craig14McKinnon16Apter3Coulton12Johnson18Mochrie20Duncan