Hungary U19 1–2 Norway U19: Result & Stats

Hungary U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Norway U19

M. Klausz 85'

B. Faraas 57'

S. Egeli 51'

10/17/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2LNK Sporta Parks 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hungary U1948%

×Draw23%

Norway U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hungary U19Expected goals in this matchNorway U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.38

Hungary U19

1.81

Norway U19

1.38

Hungary U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

2.19

creates per match

1.57

1.19

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Hungary U19

2.19

Norway U19

1.57

allows per match

Hungary U19

1.19

Norway U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hungary U19+0.00on par

Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary U19 ↓

Norway U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Hungary U19 or draw

71%

Hungary U19 or Norway U19

77%

Draw or Norway U19

52%

Winning margin

Hungary U19 wins by 2+

26%

Norway U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hungary U19 1+ goals

84%

Hungary U19 2+ goals

54%

Hungary U19 3+ goals

27%

Norway U19 1+ goals

75%

Norway U19 2+ goals

40%

Norway U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hungary U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary U19 attack 2.19 + Norway U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.81

Norway U19 attack 1.57 + Hungary U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hungary U19 scores more

48%

level

23%

Norway U19 scores more

29%

Hungary U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hungary U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

D. Szvoboda

17'

B. Mohos← T. Szücs

34'

B. Komlosi

43'

M. Okeke

51'

S. Egeli

54'

F. Cibla← D. Szvoboda

54'

M. Klausz← A. Pintér

57'

B. Faraas

58'

S. Nypan← S. Granaas

67'

E. Austbø← B. Bang-Kittelsen

67'

F. Loftesnes-Bjune← A. Hammer Kjelsen

67'

R. Norheim← S. Egeli

75'

F. Olofinjana← A. Andresen

84'

85'

90'

90+3'

Hungary

Norway

1

Børsheim

14

▼

Kjelsen

5

Røsten

4

Haram

9

⚽

Faraas

8

Melland

3

▼

Andresen

20

▼

Granaas

6

Hjertø-Da

17

⚽

▼

Egeli

11

▼

1

5

20

8

6

▼

16

4

21

19

▼

Szvoboda

14

▼

Pintér

10

▼

Szücs

Manager: L. Babó

17'▲B. Mohos←▼T. Szücs

54'▲F. Cibla←▼D. Szvoboda

54'▲M. Klausz←▼A. Pintér

84'▲C. Kokovai←▼Z. Boros

Hungary U19 substitutes

7Mohos17Cibla11Klausz13Kokovai2Bodnár3Almássy12Gyetván9Huszár23Major

Manager: Luís Pimenta

58'▲S. Nypan←▼S. Granaas

67'▲E. Austbø←▼B. Bang-Kittelsen

67'▲F. Loftesnes-Bjune←▼A. Hammer Kjelsen

67'▲R. Norheim←▼S. Egeli

75'▲F. Olofinjana←▼A. Andresen

Norway U19 substitutes

10Nypan7Austbø2Loftesnes-Bjune19Norheim15Olofinjana16Helland18Pedersen13Holten12Østraat