Hungary U19 0–0 Kosovo U19: Result & Stats

Hungary U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kosovo U19

10/13/2018

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Globall Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hungary U1933%

×Draw28%

Kosovo U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hungary U19Expected goals in this matchKosovo U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.20

Hungary U19

1.10

Kosovo U19

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.40

2.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Hungary U19

1.00

Kosovo U19

0.40

allows per match

Hungary U19

2.00

Kosovo U19

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hungary U19+0.00on par

Kosovo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary U19 ↓

Kosovo U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hungary U19 or draw

62%

Hungary U19 or Kosovo U19

72%

Draw or Kosovo U19

67%

Winning margin

Hungary U19 wins by 2+

13%

Kosovo U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hungary U19 1+ goals

67%

Hungary U19 2+ goals

30%

Hungary U19 3+ goals

10%

Kosovo U19 1+ goals

70%

Kosovo U19 2+ goals

34%

Kosovo U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hungary U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Kosovo U19 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary U19 attack 1.00 + Kosovo U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Kosovo U19 attack 0.40 + Hungary U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hungary U19 scores more

33%

level

28%

Kosovo U19 scores more

38%

Kosovo U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kosovo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff