Hungary U19 0–2 Iceland U19: Result & Stats

Hungary U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Iceland U19

H. Mikaelsson 90+5'

O. Óskarsson 67'

3/28/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5St George's Park - pitch 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hungary U1948%

×Draw23%

Iceland U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hungary U19Expected goals in this matchIceland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.33

Hungary U19

1.79

Iceland U19

1.33

Hungary U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

2.19

creates per match

1.47

1.19

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Hungary U19

2.19

Iceland U19

1.47

allows per match

Hungary U19

1.19

Iceland U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hungary U19+0.00on par

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary U19 ↓

Iceland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hungary U19 or draw

71%

Hungary U19 or Iceland U19

77%

Draw or Iceland U19

52%

Winning margin

Hungary U19 wins by 2+

26%

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hungary U19 1+ goals

83%

Hungary U19 2+ goals

53%

Hungary U19 3+ goals

26%

Iceland U19 1+ goals

74%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

38%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hungary U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Iceland U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary U19 attack 2.19 + Iceland U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.79

Iceland U19 attack 1.47 + Hungary U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hungary U19 scores more

48%

level

23%

Iceland U19 scores more

29%

Hungary U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hungary U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

24'

46'

53'

57'

H. Haraldsson← S. Jörundsson

61'

G. Jurek← B. Bakti

65'

A. Birgisson← Á. Þorsteinsson

65'

B. Brynjólfsson← G. Þórðarson

67'

O. Óskarsson

72'

M. Berki← M. Tuboly

72'

D. Kristjánsson← A. Gíslason

72'

H. Mikaelsson← O. Óskarsson

82'

N. Keresztes← A. Dénes

86'

D. Kocsis

90+2'

Z. Nagy

90+5'

H. Mikaelsson

Hungary

Iceland

1

Petersson

5

Antonsson

4

Róbertsso

6

▼

7

8

2

19

▼

Þorsteins

16

▼

Þórðarson

10

⚽

▼

Óskarsson

3

▼

Gíslason

1

Pécsi

3

▼

20

14

4

6

▼

Tuboly

23

▼

8

10

7

18

▼

Dénes

Manager: Z. Szélesi

46'▲B. Vajda←▼P. Kovács

61'▲G. Jurek←▼B. Bakti

72'▲M. Berki←▼M. Tuboly

82'▲N. Keresztes←▼A. Dénes

Hungary U19 substitutes

19Vajda11Jurek13Berki9Keresztes12Simon16Nagy-Kolozsvári5Polyák17Babós21Deákovits

Manager: Ó. Skúlason

57'▲H. Haraldsson←▼S. Jörundsson

65'▲A. Birgisson←▼Á. Þorsteinsson

65'▲B. Brynjólfsson←▼G. Þórðarson

72'▲D. Kristjánsson←▼A. Gíslason

72'▲H. Mikaelsson←▼O. Óskarsson

Iceland U19 substitutes

17Haraldsson11Birgisson13Brynjólfsson14Kristjánsson9Mikaelsson18Aðalsteinsson15Nökkvason12Georgsson20Stöle