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Hungary U19 vs Greece U19 — Friendlies 2018

Hungary U19
Hungary U19
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Greece U19
Greece U19
Z. Karargyris 88'
D. Bataoulas 84'
K. Charoupas 22'
B. Szakos 15' (OG)
10/12/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hungary U1921%
×Draw30%
Greece U1950%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hungary U19
0.71
Greece U19
1.26

Greece U19 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hungary U19
1.00
Greece U19
0.86

allows per match

Hungary U19
1.67
Greece U19
0.43

finishing

Hungary U19+0.00on par
Greece U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary U19 ↓

Greece U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–211%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hungary U19 or draw
50%
Hungary U19 or Greece U19
70%
Draw or Greece U19
79%

Winning margin

Hungary U19 wins by 2+
6%
Greece U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hungary U19 1+ goals
51%
Hungary U19 2+ goals
16%
Hungary U19 3+ goals
4%
Greece U19 1+ goals
72%
Greece U19 2+ goals
36%
Greece U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hungary U19 (draw refunded)
30%
Greece U19 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Greece U19 away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary U19 attack 1.00 + Greece U19 defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.71

Greece U19 attack 0.86 + Hungary U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hungary U19 scores more
21%
level
30%
Greece U19 scores more
50%

Greece U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Greece U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
B. SzakosOwn goal
22'
K. Charoupas
84'
D. Bataoulas
88'
Z. Karargyris
Hungary
Greece
G. Jeremiás
Manager: G. Jeremiás
V. Moras
Manager: V. Moras

Match Recap: Hungary U19 vs Greece U19

Greece U19 beat Hungary U19 4-0 in Friendlies on October 12, 2025.

Goals: B. Szakos (15' o.g.), K. Charoupas (22'), D. Bataoulas (84'), Z. Karargyris (88').