Hungary U19 1–0 Andorra U19: Result & Stats

Hungary U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Andorra U19

H. Németh 82'

11/15/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hungary U1970%

×Draw18%

Andorra U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hungary U19Expected goals in this matchAndorra U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

0.76

Hungary U19

2.22

Andorra U19

0.76

Hungary U19 creates 192% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

2.19

creates per match

0.33

1.19

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Hungary U19

2.19

Andorra U19

0.33

allows per match

Hungary U19

1.19

Andorra U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hungary U19+0.00on par

Andorra U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary U19 ↓

Andorra U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hungary U19 or draw

89%

Hungary U19 or Andorra U19

82%

Draw or Andorra U19

30%

Winning margin

Hungary U19 wins by 2+

46%

Andorra U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Hungary U19 1+ goals

89%

Hungary U19 2+ goals

65%

Hungary U19 3+ goals

38%

Andorra U19 1+ goals

53%

Andorra U19 2+ goals

18%

Andorra U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hungary U19 (draw refunded)

86%

Andorra U19 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Andorra U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary U19 attack 2.19 + Andorra U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.22

Andorra U19 attack 0.33 + Hungary U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Hungary U19 scores more

70%

level

18%

Andorra U19 scores more

11%

Hungary U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hungary U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

H. Nemeth

61'

B. Simon← P. Kovács

61'

C. Molnár← Z. Varga

63'

M. Kern

65'

D. Vieira

65'

C. Molnar

72'

A. Girsik← C. Hornyák

72'

Manel Anglada← Daniel de Sa

78'

Joel Moutinho← Daniel de Lima

78'

Haroun← Albert Solanes

81'

J. Guma

82'

H. Németh

87'

Bernat Arderiu← Jan Rodríguez

87'

Biel Struve← Yedid Santaella

88'

M. Vidnyanszky

90+3'

B. Bacsa← M. Vidnyánszky

Hungary

Andorra

13

Aroca

20

Miranda

4

▼

Solanes

18

Cornellà

3

▼

Sa

15

▼

Lima

6

▼

5

2

9

19

▼

Rodríguez

1

Yaakobish

19

▼

Kovács

3

▼

15

23

6

16

⚽

Németh

8

Kern

20

▼

Vidnyánsz

7

▼

Varga

10

Szabó

Manager: G. Jeremiás

61'▲B. Simon←▼P. Kovács

61'▲C. Molnár←▼Z. Varga

72'▲A. Girsik←▼C. Hornyák

90+3'▲B. Bacsa←▼M. Vidnyánszky

Hungary U19 substitutes

9Simon11Molnár17Girsik2Bacsa4Szamosi12Lehoczki5Stumpf21Mondovics13Bősze

Manager: Óscar Sonejee

72'▲Manel Anglada←▼Daniel de Sa

78'▲Joel Moutinho←▼Daniel de Lima

78'▲Haroun←▼Albert Solanes

87'▲Bernat Arderiu←▼Jan Rodríguez

87'▲Biel Struve←▼Yedid Santaella

Andorra U19 substitutes

16Anglada21Moutinho7Haroun14Arderiu11Struve1Heredia23Didi22Gracia