Hungary U17 0–1 Georgia U17: Result & Stats

Hungary U17

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Georgia U17

10/25/2021

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Globall Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hungary U1760%

×Draw19%

Georgia U1721%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hungary U17Expected goals in this matchGeorgia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.31

Hungary U17

2.33

Georgia U17

1.31

Hungary U17 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

2.38

creates per match

1.47

1.15

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Hungary U17

2.38

Georgia U17

1.47

allows per match

Hungary U17

1.15

Georgia U17

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hungary U17+0.00on par

Georgia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary U17 ↓

Georgia U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Hungary U17 or draw

79%

Hungary U17 or Georgia U17

81%

Draw or Georgia U17

40%

Winning margin

Hungary U17 wins by 2+

38%

Georgia U17 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hungary U17 1+ goals

90%

Hungary U17 2+ goals

67%

Hungary U17 3+ goals

41%

Georgia U17 1+ goals

73%

Georgia U17 2+ goals

38%

Georgia U17 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hungary U17 (draw refunded)

74%

Georgia U17 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary U17 at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Georgia U17 away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary U17 attack 2.38 + Georgia U17 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.33

Georgia U17 attack 1.47 + Hungary U17 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hungary U17 scores more

60%

level

19%

Georgia U17 scores more

21%

Hungary U17 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hungary U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff