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Hünfelder SV vs Hessen Dreieich — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hünfelder SV
Hünfelder SV
CANC
13:00
Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
5/8/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 31Rasenplatz Hünfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hünfelder SV34%
×Draw22%
Hessen Dreieich44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hünfelder SV
1.69
Hessen Dreieich
1.95

Hessen Dreieich creates 15% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 21 away

creates per match

Hünfelder SV
1.85
Hessen Dreieich
2.14

allows per match

Hünfelder SV
1.76
Hessen Dreieich
1.52

finishing

Hünfelder SV+0.00on par
Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hünfelder SV ↓

Hessen Dreieich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hünfelder SV or draw
56%
Hünfelder SV or Hessen Dreieich
78%
Draw or Hessen Dreieich
66%

Winning margin

Hünfelder SV wins by 2+
17%
Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hünfelder SV 1+ goals
82%
Hünfelder SV 2+ goals
50%
Hünfelder SV 3+ goals
24%
Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
86%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
58%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hünfelder SV (draw refunded)
43%
Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hünfelder SV at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hünfelder SV attack 1.85 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Hünfelder SV defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hünfelder SV scores more
34%
level
22%
Hessen Dreieich scores more
44%

Hessen Dreieich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hünfelder SV face Hessen Dreieich (Oberliga - Hessen)

Oberliga - Hessen returns with Hünfelder SV hosting Hessen Dreieich. Match starts May 8, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hünfelder SV host Hessen Dreieich at Rasenplatz Hünfeld.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.