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Hünfelder SV vs Baunatal — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hünfelder SV
Hünfelder SV
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Baunatal
Baunatal
8/24/2024Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 6Rasenplatz Hünfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Hünfelder SV41%
×Draw23%
Baunatal36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hünfelder SV
1.76
Baunatal
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 92 away

creates per match

Hünfelder SV
1.85
Baunatal
1.51

allows per match

Hünfelder SV
1.76
Baunatal
1.67

finishing

Hünfelder SV+0.00on par
Baunatal+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hünfelder SV ↓

Baunatal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hünfelder SV or draw
64%
Hünfelder SV or Baunatal
77%
Draw or Baunatal
59%

Winning margin

Hünfelder SV wins by 2+
21%
Baunatal wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hünfelder SV 1+ goals
83%
Hünfelder SV 2+ goals
52%
Hünfelder SV 3+ goals
26%
Baunatal 1+ goals
81%
Baunatal 2+ goals
49%
Baunatal 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hünfelder SV (draw refunded)
53%
Baunatal (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hünfelder SV at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches

Baunatal away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.67 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hünfelder SV attack 1.85 + Baunatal defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Baunatal attack 1.51 + Hünfelder SV defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hünfelder SV scores more
41%
level
23%
Baunatal scores more
36%

Hünfelder SV at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hünfelder SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Hünfelder SV 3–2 Baunatal

Hünfelder SV beat Baunatal 3-2 in Oberliga - Hessen on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Hünfeld in Hünfeld.