Hunan Billows FC 1–6 Tai'an Tiankuang

Hunan Billows FC

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Tai'an Tiankuang

10/14/2023

League Two · Relegation Round - 7Loudi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hunan Billows FC32%

×Draw25%

Tai'an Tiankuang42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hunan Billows FCExpected goals in this matchTai'an Tiankuang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.49

Hunan Billows FC

1.27

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.49

Tai'an Tiankuang creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 54 away

1.22

creates per match

1.07

1.91

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC

1.22

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.07

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC

1.91

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Tai'an Tiankuang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Tai'an Tiankuang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw

58%

Hunan Billows FC or Tai'an Tiankuang

75%

Draw or Tai'an Tiankuang

68%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+

14%

Tai'an Tiankuang wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals

72%

Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals

36%

Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals

14%

Tai'an Tiankuang 1+ goals

77%

Tai'an Tiankuang 2+ goals

44%

Tai'an Tiankuang 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)

43%

Tai'an Tiankuang (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Tai'an Tiankuang away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 1.22 + Tai'an Tiankuang defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tai'an Tiankuang attack 1.07 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more

32%

level

25%

Tai'an Tiankuang scores more

42%

Tai'an Tiankuang at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tai'an Tiankuang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff