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Hunan Billows FC vs Shanghai Jiading — FA Cup 2019

Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
5/31/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundLoudi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hunan Billows FC30%
×Draw25%
Shanghai Jiading45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hunan Billows FC
1.21
Shanghai Jiading
1.56

Shanghai Jiading creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC
0.67
Shanghai Jiading
1.13

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC
2.00
Shanghai Jiading
1.75

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par
Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Shanghai Jiading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw
55%
Hunan Billows FC or Shanghai Jiading
75%
Draw or Shanghai Jiading
70%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
12%
Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
70%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
34%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
12%
Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
79%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
46%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
39%
Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.67 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Shanghai Jiading attack 1.13 + Hunan Billows FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more
30%
level
25%
Shanghai Jiading scores more
45%

Shanghai Jiading at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shanghai Jiading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Hunan Billows FC 1–0 Shanghai Jiading

Hunan Billows FC beat Shanghai Jiading 1-0 in FA Cup on May 31, 2023.

The match was played at Loudi Sports Center in Loudi.