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Hunan Billows FC vs Hebei Kungfu — FA Cup 2019

Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Hebei Kungfu
Hebei Kungfu
5/18/2024FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundLoudi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hunan Billows FC13%
×Draw21%
Hebei Kungfu65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hunan Billows FC
0.71
Hebei Kungfu
1.88

Hebei Kungfu creates 165% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC
0.67
Hebei Kungfu
1.75

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC
2.00
Hebei Kungfu
0.75

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par
Hebei Kungfu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Hebei Kungfu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw
35%
Hunan Billows FC or Hebei Kungfu
79%
Draw or Hebei Kungfu
87%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
4%
Hebei Kungfu wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
51%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
16%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
4%
Hebei Kungfu 1+ goals
85%
Hebei Kungfu 2+ goals
56%
Hebei Kungfu 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
17%
Hebei Kungfu (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Hebei Kungfu away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.67 + Hebei Kungfu defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Hebei Kungfu attack 1.75 + Hunan Billows FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more
13%
level
21%
Hebei Kungfu scores more
65%

Hebei Kungfu at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hebei Kungfu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Hunan Billows FC 0–3 Hebei Kungfu

Hebei Kungfu beat Hunan Billows FC 3-0 in FA Cup on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Loudi Sports Center in Loudi.