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Humpolec vs Ždírec nad Doubravou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Humpolec
Humpolec
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
4/7/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 20Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Humpolec47%
×Draw24%
Ždírec nad Doubravou29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humpolec
1.69
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.27

Humpolec creates 33% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 80 away

creates per match

Humpolec
1.65
Ždírec nad Doubravou
0.96

allows per match

Humpolec
1.59
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.73

finishing

Humpolec+0.00on par
Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humpolec ↓

Ždírec nad Doubravou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Humpolec or draw
71%
Humpolec or Ždírec nad Doubravou
76%
Draw or Ždírec nad Doubravou
53%

Winning margin

Humpolec wins by 2+
25%
Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Humpolec 1+ goals
82%
Humpolec 2+ goals
50%
Humpolec 3+ goals
24%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
72%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
36%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Humpolec (draw refunded)
62%
Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humpolec at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.59 · 80 matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humpolec attack 1.65 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 0.96 + Humpolec defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Humpolec scores more
47%
level
24%
Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
29%

Humpolec at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Humpolec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Humpolec vs Ždírec nad Doubravou

Humpolec beat Ždírec nad Doubravou 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec in Humpolec.