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Humpolec vs Žďár nad Sázavou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Humpolec
Humpolec
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Žďár nad Sázavou
Žďár nad Sázavou
6/9/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 29Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Humpolec43%
×Draw23%
Žďár nad Sázavou34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humpolec
1.76
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.56

Humpolec creates 13% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 84 away

creates per match

Humpolec
1.63
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.54

allows per match

Humpolec
1.58
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.90

finishing

Humpolec+0.00on par
Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humpolec ↓

Žďár nad Sázavou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Humpolec or draw
66%
Humpolec or Žďár nad Sázavou
77%
Draw or Žďár nad Sázavou
57%

Winning margin

Humpolec wins by 2+
22%
Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Humpolec 1+ goals
83%
Humpolec 2+ goals
52%
Humpolec 3+ goals
26%
Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals
79%
Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals
46%
Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Humpolec (draw refunded)
55%
Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humpolec at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

Žďár nad Sázavou away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humpolec attack 1.63 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.76

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.54 + Humpolec defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Humpolec scores more
43%
level
23%
Žďár nad Sázavou scores more
34%

Humpolec at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Humpolec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Humpolec 3–1 Žďár nad Sázavou

Humpolec beat Žďár nad Sázavou 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec in Humpolec.