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Humpolec vs Zbrojovka Brno II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Humpolec
Humpolec
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
5/19/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 26Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Humpolec24%
×Draw21%
Zbrojovka Brno II55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humpolec
1.28
Zbrojovka Brno II
2.04

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 39 away

creates per match

Humpolec
1.65
Zbrojovka Brno II
2.49

allows per match

Humpolec
1.59
Zbrojovka Brno II
0.92

finishing

Humpolec+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humpolec ↓

Zbrojovka Brno II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Humpolec or draw
45%
Humpolec or Zbrojovka Brno II
79%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno II
76%

Winning margin

Humpolec wins by 2+
10%
Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Humpolec 1+ goals
72%
Humpolec 2+ goals
37%
Humpolec 3+ goals
14%
Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
87%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
60%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Humpolec (draw refunded)
30%
Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humpolec at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.59 · 80 matches

Zbrojovka Brno II away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humpolec attack 1.65 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.28

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.49 + Humpolec defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Humpolec scores more
24%
level
21%
Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
55%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Humpolec 0–2 Zbrojovka Brno II

Zbrojovka Brno II beat Humpolec 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec in Humpolec.