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Humpolec vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Humpolec
Humpolec
FT
0 – 1
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
10/13/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 11Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec (Humpolec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Humpolec32%
×Draw23%
Vysočina Jihlava II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humpolec
1.48
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.79

Vysočina Jihlava II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 19 away

creates per match

Humpolec
1.63
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.00

allows per match

Humpolec
1.58
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.32

finishing

Humpolec+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humpolec ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Humpolec or draw
55%
Humpolec or Vysočina Jihlava II
77%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
68%

Winning margin

Humpolec wins by 2+
15%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Humpolec 1+ goals
77%
Humpolec 2+ goals
43%
Humpolec 3+ goals
19%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
83%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
53%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Humpolec (draw refunded)
42%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humpolec at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humpolec attack 1.63 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.00 + Humpolec defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Humpolec scores more
32%
level
23%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
45%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Humpolec 0–1 Vysočina Jihlava II

Vysočina Jihlava II beat Humpolec 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec (Humpolec).