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Humpolec vs Sokol Lanžhot — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Humpolec
Humpolec
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Lanžhot
Sokol Lanžhot
5/5/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 24Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Humpolec31%
×Draw24%
Sokol Lanžhot45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humpolec
1.36
Sokol Lanžhot
1.68

Sokol Lanžhot creates 24% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 65 away

creates per match

Humpolec
1.65
Sokol Lanžhot
1.77

allows per match

Humpolec
1.59
Sokol Lanžhot
1.08

finishing

Humpolec+0.00on par
Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humpolec ↓

Sokol Lanžhot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Humpolec or draw
55%
Humpolec or Sokol Lanžhot
76%
Draw or Sokol Lanžhot
69%

Winning margin

Humpolec wins by 2+
14%
Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Humpolec 1+ goals
74%
Humpolec 2+ goals
39%
Humpolec 3+ goals
16%
Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals
81%
Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals
50%
Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Humpolec (draw refunded)
41%
Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humpolec at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.59 · 80 matches

Sokol Lanžhot away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humpolec attack 1.65 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sokol Lanžhot attack 1.77 + Humpolec defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Humpolec scores more
31%
level
24%
Sokol Lanžhot scores more
45%

Sokol Lanžhot at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Humpolec 3–2 Sokol Lanžhot

Humpolec beat Sokol Lanžhot 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie D on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec in Humpolec.