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Humpolec vs Slavoj Polná — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Humpolec
Humpolec
PST
15:00
Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
5/31/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 25Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec (Humpolec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Humpolec62%
×Draw19%
Slavoj Polná19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humpolec
2.42
Slavoj Polná
1.27

Humpolec creates 91% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 54 away

creates per match

Humpolec
1.63
Slavoj Polná
0.96

allows per match

Humpolec
1.58
Slavoj Polná
3.20

finishing

Humpolec+0.00on par
Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humpolec ↓

Slavoj Polná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Humpolec or draw
81%
Humpolec or Slavoj Polná
81%
Draw or Slavoj Polná
38%

Winning margin

Humpolec wins by 2+
41%
Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Humpolec 1+ goals
91%
Humpolec 2+ goals
69%
Humpolec 3+ goals
43%
Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
72%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
36%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Humpolec (draw refunded)
77%
Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humpolec at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humpolec attack 1.63 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.42

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Humpolec defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Humpolec scores more
62%
level
19%
Slavoj Polná scores more
19%

Humpolec at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Humpolec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Humpolec vs Slavoj Polná — Match Preview

Humpolec face Slavoj Polná on May 31, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie D fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Humpolec host Slavoj Polná at Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec (Humpolec).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.