Humpolec 4–2 FS Třebíč: Result & Stats

Humpolec

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

FS Třebíč

9/21/2024

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 8Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Humpolec49%

×Draw22%

FS Třebíč29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HumpolecExpected goals in this matchFS Třebíč

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.41

Humpolec

1.89

FS Třebíč

1.41

Humpolec creates 34% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 30 away

1.65

creates per match

1.23

1.59

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Humpolec

1.65

FS Třebíč

1.23

allows per match

Humpolec

1.59

FS Třebíč

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humpolec+0.00on par

FS Třebíč+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humpolec ↓

FS Třebíč →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Humpolec or draw

71%

Humpolec or FS Třebíč

78%

Draw or FS Třebíč

51%

Winning margin

Humpolec wins by 2+

27%

FS Třebíč wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Humpolec 1+ goals

85%

Humpolec 2+ goals

56%

Humpolec 3+ goals

29%

FS Třebíč 1+ goals

76%

FS Třebíč 2+ goals

41%

FS Třebíč 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Humpolec (draw refunded)

63%

FS Třebíč (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humpolec at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.59 · 80 matches

FS Třebíč away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humpolec attack 1.65 + FS Třebíč defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.89

FS Třebíč attack 1.23 + Humpolec defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Humpolec scores more

49%

level

22%

FS Třebíč scores more

29%

Humpolec at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Humpolec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff