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Humpolec vs Bystřice nad Pernštejnem — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Humpolec
Humpolec
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
5/6/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 21Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Humpolec54%
×Draw21%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humpolec
2.13
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.39

Humpolec creates 53% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 37 away

creates per match

Humpolec
1.63
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.19

allows per match

Humpolec
1.58
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.62

finishing

Humpolec+0.00on par
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humpolec ↓

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Humpolec or draw
75%
Humpolec or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
79%
Draw or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
46%

Winning margin

Humpolec wins by 2+
32%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Humpolec 1+ goals
88%
Humpolec 2+ goals
63%
Humpolec 3+ goals
35%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
75%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
40%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Humpolec (draw refunded)
69%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humpolec at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humpolec attack 1.63 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.13

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.19 + Humpolec defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Humpolec scores more
54%
level
21%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
25%

Humpolec at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Humpolec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Humpolec vs Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Humpolec and Bystřice nad Pernštejnem drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie D on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec in Humpolec.