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Humpolec vs Břeclav — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Humpolec
Humpolec
PST
15:00
Břeclav
Břeclav
6/14/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 14Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec (Humpolec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Humpolec51%
×Draw22%
Břeclav26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humpolec
1.90
Břeclav
1.31

Humpolec creates 45% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 66 away

creates per match

Humpolec
1.65
Břeclav
1.03

allows per match

Humpolec
1.59
Břeclav
2.14

finishing

Humpolec+0.00on par
Břeclav+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humpolec ↓

Břeclav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Humpolec or draw
74%
Humpolec or Břeclav
78%
Draw or Břeclav
49%

Winning margin

Humpolec wins by 2+
29%
Břeclav wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Humpolec 1+ goals
85%
Humpolec 2+ goals
56%
Humpolec 3+ goals
29%
Břeclav 1+ goals
73%
Břeclav 2+ goals
38%
Břeclav 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Humpolec (draw refunded)
66%
Břeclav (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humpolec at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.59 · 80 matches

Břeclav away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humpolec attack 1.65 + Břeclav defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.90

Břeclav attack 1.03 + Humpolec defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Humpolec scores more
51%
level
22%
Břeclav scores more
26%

Humpolec at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Humpolec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Humpolec face Břeclav (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D returns with Humpolec hosting Břeclav. Match starts June 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Humpolec host Břeclav at Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec (Humpolec).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.