Břeclav 1–0 Humpolec: Result & Stats

Břeclav

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Humpolec

8/17/2024

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 3Stadion Lesní ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Břeclav49%

×Draw24%

Humpolec28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BřeclavExpected goals in this matchHumpolec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.23

Břeclav

1.71

Humpolec

1.23

Břeclav creates 39% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 80 away

1.40

creates per match

1.10

1.35

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Břeclav

1.40

Humpolec

1.10

allows per match

Břeclav

1.35

Humpolec

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Břeclav+0.00on par

Humpolec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břeclav ↓

Humpolec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Břeclav or draw

72%

Břeclav or Humpolec

76%

Draw or Humpolec

51%

Winning margin

Břeclav wins by 2+

26%

Humpolec wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Břeclav 1+ goals

82%

Břeclav 2+ goals

51%

Břeclav 3+ goals

24%

Humpolec 1+ goals

71%

Humpolec 2+ goals

35%

Humpolec 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Břeclav (draw refunded)

64%

Humpolec (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břeclav at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

Humpolec away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břeclav attack 1.40 + Humpolec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.71

Humpolec attack 1.10 + Břeclav defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Břeclav scores more

49%

level

24%

Humpolec scores more

28%

Břeclav at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Břeclav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff