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Humenné vs Žilina II — 2. liga 2019

Humenné
Humenné
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Žilina II
Žilina II
4/26/20252. liga2. liga · Round 23Chemlonský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Humenné47%
×Draw25%
Žilina II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humenné
1.58
Žilina II
1.14

Humenné creates 39% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 98 away

creates per match

Humenné
1.28
Žilina II
1.30

allows per match

Humenné
0.97
Žilina II
1.87

finishing

Humenné+0.00on par
Žilina II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humenné ↓

Žilina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Humenné or draw
73%
Humenné or Žilina II
75%
Draw or Žilina II
53%

Winning margin

Humenné wins by 2+
24%
Žilina II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Humenné 1+ goals
79%
Humenné 2+ goals
47%
Humenné 3+ goals
21%
Žilina II 1+ goals
68%
Žilina II 2+ goals
32%
Žilina II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Humenné (draw refunded)
63%
Žilina II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humenné at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

Žilina II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.87 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humenné attack 1.28 + Žilina II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Žilina II attack 1.30 + Humenné defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Humenné scores more
47%
level
25%
Žilina II scores more
27%

Humenné at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Humenné vs Žilina II

Humenné beat Žilina II 2-0 in 2. liga on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Chemlonský štadión in Humenné.