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Humenné vs Spišská Nová Ves — 3. liga - East 2020

Humenné
Humenné
CANC
14:00
Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
4/25/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 22Chemlonský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Humenné63%
×Draw19%
Spišská Nová Ves18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humenné
2.36
Spišská Nová Ves
1.21

Humenné creates 95% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 64 away

creates per match

Humenné
3.82
Spišská Nová Ves
1.73

allows per match

Humenné
0.68
Spišská Nová Ves
0.91

finishing

Humenné+0.00on par
Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humenné ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Humenné or draw
82%
Humenné or Spišská Nová Ves
81%
Draw or Spišská Nová Ves
37%

Winning margin

Humenné wins by 2+
40%
Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Humenné 1+ goals
90%
Humenné 2+ goals
68%
Humenné 3+ goals
41%
Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
70%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
34%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Humenné (draw refunded)
77%
Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humenné at home — creates 3.82, concedes 0.68 · 22 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humenné attack 3.82 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 2.36

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.73 + Humenné defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Humenné scores more
63%
level
19%
Spišská Nová Ves scores more
18%

Humenné at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Humenné vs Spišská Nová Ves — Match Preview

Humenné face Spišská Nová Ves on April 25, 2021 in this 3. liga - East fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Humenné host Spišská Nová Ves at Chemlonský štadión.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.