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Humenné vs Slovan Giraltovce — 3. liga - East 2020

Humenné
Humenné
CANC
15:00
Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
5/23/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Humenné85%
×Draw10%
Slovan Giraltovce4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humenné
3.08
Slovan Giraltovce
0.59

Humenné creates 422% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

creates per match

Humenné
3.82
Slovan Giraltovce
0.50

allows per match

Humenné
0.68
Slovan Giraltovce
2.34

finishing

Humenné+0.00on par
Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humenné ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Humenné or draw
96%
Humenné or Slovan Giraltovce
90%
Draw or Slovan Giraltovce
15%

Winning margin

Humenné wins by 2+
67%
Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Humenné 1+ goals
95%
Humenné 2+ goals
81%
Humenné 3+ goals
58%
Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
45%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
12%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Humenné (draw refunded)
95%
Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humenné at home — creates 3.82, concedes 0.68 · 22 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humenné attack 3.82 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 3.08

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Humenné defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Humenné scores more
85%
level
10%
Slovan Giraltovce scores more
4%

Humenné at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Humenné host Slovan Giraltovce

May 23, 2021: Humenné take on Slovan Giraltovce in 3. liga - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.