Humenné 0–1 Slavoj Trebišov: Result & Stats

Humenné

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slavoj Trebišov

10/5/2022

2. liga · Round 11Chemlonský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Humenné53%

×Draw25%

Slavoj Trebišov22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HumennéExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Trebišov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.97

Humenné

1.65

Slavoj Trebišov

0.97

Humenné creates 70% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 69 away

1.28

creates per match

0.97

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Humenné

1.28

Slavoj Trebišov

0.97

allows per match

Humenné

0.97

Slavoj Trebišov

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humenné+0.00on par

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humenné ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Humenné or draw

78%

Humenné or Slavoj Trebišov

75%

Draw or Slavoj Trebišov

47%

Winning margin

Humenné wins by 2+

29%

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Humenné 1+ goals

81%

Humenné 2+ goals

49%

Humenné 3+ goals

23%

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals

62%

Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals

25%

Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Humenné (draw refunded)

71%

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humenné at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humenné attack 1.28 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.65

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Humenné defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Humenné scores more

53%

level

25%

Slavoj Trebišov scores more

22%

Humenné at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff